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Saturday, 18 January 2014

NORWAY YANG MILLIONAIRE? ANAK IKAN @anwaribrahim @rafiziramli BOLEH TOLONG JAWAB TAK? PAK MANTAN MUFTI @realDrMAZA ATAU 'ADMIN'@drmazacom NAK MENYAMPUK PUN BOLEH

Oleh : Dr. Aznil Hisham

Seorang sahabat PR meminta penjelasan aku tentang sebuah artikel yang entah siapa penulisnya... Artikel itu adalah mengenai perbandingan antara Malaysia dan Norway jika di lihat sudut ekonomi... Sahabat aku ini seperti tak mahu menjadi warganegara Malaysia lagi dan ingin menjadi warga negara Norway... Setelah beliau membaca artikel ini.

http://www.theantdaily.com/news/2014/01/14/blessed-oil-money-why-malaysia-huge-debt

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Berikut adalah pandangan aku:

‪#‎Pertama‬

Penulis seperti tidak 'up to date' dengan info-info terkini. Beliau mengatakan bahawa hutang hutang negara kini adalah RM 800 bill (2012)

Kesian.. artikel itu di tulis pada tahun 2014 tetapi fakta 2 tahun yang lepas..

Untuk pengetahuan : updated

Hutang negara sekarang adalah
Rm 534 bill (USD 163 bill)

Norway : USD 123 bill.

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‪#‎Kedua‬

Populasi:

Malaysia: 29 300 000
Norway: 4 952 000

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‪#‎Ketiga‬

Citizan's share (debt)

Malaysia : USD 5 549/person
Norway : USD 24 835/person

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‪#‎Keempat‬

Pengeluaran minyak sehari:

Malaysia : 693,700 barrels/day.
Norway :2,350,000 bbl/day.

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‪#‎Kelima‬

Cukai pendapatan (secara kasar)

Malaysia : 11% (Average, but max 26%)
Norway : 41% (Average)

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‪#‎Keenam‬

Cukai barangan

Malaysia : 10% (SST, kelak GST 6%)
Norway : 25% (VAT secara kasar)

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‪#‎Ketujuh‬

Minyak

Malaysia : bersubsidi
Norway : tiada subsidi tapi ada tax untuk kegunaan minyak.

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‪#‎KESIMPULAN‬

Kedudukan Debt to GDP ratio bagi Norway adalah memang lebih baik dari Malaysia. Ianya logik kerana dengan penduduk yg sedikit (1/6 dari jumlah penduduk Malaysia), pengeluaran minyak petroleum lebih besar (3 kali ganda dari Malaysia), cukai pendapatan yang tinggi (4 kali ganda dari Malaysia- purata), cukai barangan yang melambung (4 kali ganda dari Malaysia) & tiada subsidi minyak malah fuel tax pula di kenakan kepada pengguna.

Dengan pendapatan yang begitu banyak dan mewah.. hutang setiap individu penduduk bagi Norway adalah 5 kali ganda dari Malaysia.

Millionaire kah penduduk Norway?

Jika di lihat secara umum.. Norway sepatutnya tiada hutang langsung.

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Take a look at schedule 1

Did you know that the country of Norway (1,998,000 bpd) produces about 3 times more oil than Malaysia (693,700bpd) and almost 60% more natural gas (103billion cubic meters) (66 billion cubic meters) than Malaysia?

However Malaysia's population (29million) is 6 times higher than Norway's (5million).

Which means Norway produces almost 17 times more oil per person and more than 9 times more natural gas per person compared to Malaysia.

However, the current price of RON95 petrol in Norway is 3½ higher at €1.65 (RM7.45) per litre compared to Malaysia's RM2.10 per litre.

Conclusions:
1) Malaysia produces too little oil per capita compared to other countries
2) Petrol prices is not dependent on how much oil a country produces
3) There is no sense in comparing between different countries because each country is uniquely different.

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Take a look at schedule 2

Why Malaysia cannot afford cheap petrol compared to the other oil producing countries where petrol is cheaper than us.

- we mention oil producing countries and not just oil exports. 

- as shown in the table below which shows countries with cheaper petrol prices compared to malaysia, our self made-up ratio of "barrels per population" shows Malaysia is at a very low at 0.02.

- all other countries have far better ratios

- The closest country to ours is Venezuela at 0.11 and maybe that is why their country's economy is in big crisis.

- we just don't produce enough oil to cater to such a big-ish population as in Malaysia

- please remember that Malaysia's oil production and oil consumption trend is very close to Malaysia being a nett oil importing country:

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Take a look at graph 3

The biggest advantage of Petrol price increase - Changing Consumer Behaviour

- For this discussion, forgot about where the RM3.3bilion savings from this latest 20sen increase will be going to - whether BR1M, or reducing govt debt or leakages or whatever

- Look at the following graph on Malaysia's total oil production vs oil consumption over the years.

- We came close twice (danger points) where our oil consumption was about to overtake our oil production 

- which means we then become a net oil importing country instead of a oil-exporting country where Malaysia will have to spend tens of billions of RM to import oil.

- particularly worrying is the sharp rise in oil consumption in the years of 2006-2008 when global oil prices were at a historic high and actually reached US$145 per barrel (right now the price is about US$108 per barrel. In 1999, oil prices were about US$17 per barrel)

- It seems like in 2006-2008, while oil prices were sky-rocketing world-wide, Malaysians just don't care and consume more and more oil. This is what subsidies and market distortion does - it doesn't force the consumer to realize or accept market realities.

- Suddenly in Jun 2008, govt increased petrol price from RM1.90 to RM2.70 and suddenly the sharp rise in oil consumption in the graph reversed to a sharp fall in oil consumption. 

- Did life in Malaysia come to an end in 2008? Was there rioting in the streets? A breakdown in society? Did we all die? Nope. We just continued on with life and watch the World Cup in 2010 on our satellite TVs. 

- Basically, we adjusted our behaviour and became more efficient and more productive using less oil

- When petrol prices at the pump suddenly increase, our consumption behaviour changes. We drive more carefully, plan our trips and evaluate whether it is necessary to make that car trip. Suddenly, we become conscious on conserving energy and reducing wasteful behaviour.

- And isn't that good for your wallet, for the country and for the environment?

References :

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=190681147778330
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=MY
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2011/07/14/norwegians-most-hated-taxes/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxation_in_Norway
http://savemoney.my/malaysia-personal-income-tax-guide-2013-rates-exemptions-rebates-reliefs-and-more/

6 comments:

  1. wages, other social benefits, infrastructures... amacam? apple to apple lah bro, bukan apple to durian!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Now you asking to compare apple to apple.. tapi sebelum ni bila harga minyak naik meroyan and compare dgn harga brunei la , arab saudi la.. bengong tul

      Delete
  2. Malaysia Merdeka bila? Norway merdeka bila?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Apple to durian still buah-buahan Ciptaan ALLAH :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. .. puak pakatan rusuhan mana hendak dengar fakta, mereka lebih suka dengar auta...

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=my

    http://meih.st.gov.my/statistics;jsessionid=D61BBFB477A77B18E6C870835E41EA74?p_auth=6cVyeckr&p_p_id=Eng_Statistic_WAR_STOASPublicPortlet&p_p_lifecycle=1&p_p_state=maximized&p_p_mode=view&p_p_col_id=column-1&p_p_col_pos=1&p_p_col_count=2&_Eng_Statistic_WAR_STOASPublicPortlet_execution=e1s1&_Eng_Statistic_WAR_STOASPublicPortlet__eventId=ViewStatistic7&categoryId=1&flowId=2

    rasa kita jadi lebih pengimport minyak bukan untuk export dah

    ReplyDelete

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